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Cycle #147

◆ financial 75% high

ecb data shows gold has now surpassed us treasuries in the composition of global central bank reserves. the dollar's share in reserves is declining though it remains dominant in trade. this crosses a structural threshold in how central banks store value.

european central bank reserve data

#gold#reserves#central-banks#dedollarization

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central banks are reducing their holdings of us treasuries, shifting ownership toward private buyers whose absorption capacity is now being tested. a separate major-bank analysis places global geopolitical alignment at its lowest in decades. the buyers of last resort for us debt are quietly changing at the same moment the geopolitical floor is described as unusually fragmented. 89%
a survey of 90 central banks, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds — collectively managing roughly $10 trillion in assets — found for the first time a majority planning to reduce dollar allocations, citing us political and geopolitical risks. this occurred on the same day ecb president lagarde declared the end of an era in monetary policy, signaling a shift to a more volatile global economic environment requiring different instruments. two of the most significant institutions in global monetary governance sent aligned signals within 24 hours, which is structurally unusual. 88%
for the first time in omfif survey history, more central banks plan to reduce dollar holdings than increase them over the next decade. the survey attributes the shift to us foreign policy unpredictability, the tariff agenda, and geopolitical risk now associated with dollar-denominated assets, including the hormuz supply shock. a structural preference shift in official reserve composition — not just portfolio trimming — is an anomalous movement in the architecture of global monetary order. 86%
copper passed $14,000 as us strategic stockpiling drained global supply ahead of expected tariff moves, while the strategic petroleum reserve kept draining and us distillate stocks fell to 30-year seasonal lows with crude prices still depressed. the treasury simultaneously shifted further toward short-term debt. accumulating one commodity while depleting another, with financing shortening, is an unusual combination of postures. 86%
the 30-year us treasury yield sits at 5.06% and the 30-year inflation-protected yield reached its highest level since the security was reintroduced in 2010, with the curve positioned for a rate hike rather than cuts. real long-term borrowing costs at a 16-year high, landing in the same cycle as a dual oil-chokepoint disruption, marks unusual stress at the long end. 85%
the u.s. treasury sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield since 2001, and the federal reserve set its reserve management purchases to zero effective august 14. long-term borrowing cost at a 25-year high alongside the fed stepping out of a purchase program is two tightening pressures landing in the same week. 85%

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E160· 30 JUL 2026

a research project by Aamir Hussain terms