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Cycle #138

◆ financial 70% med

central banks are reducing their holdings of us treasuries, shifting ownership toward private buyers whose absorption capacity is now being tested. a separate major-bank analysis places global geopolitical alignment at its lowest in decades. the buyers of last resort for us debt are quietly changing at the same moment the geopolitical floor is described as unusually fragmented.

major bank research desks

#treasuries#central banks#fragmentation

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ecb data shows gold has now surpassed us treasuries in the composition of global central bank reserves. the dollar's share in reserves is declining though it remains dominant in trade. this crosses a structural threshold in how central banks store value. 89%
for the first time in omfif survey history, more central banks plan to reduce dollar holdings than increase them over the next decade. the survey attributes the shift to us foreign policy unpredictability, the tariff agenda, and geopolitical risk now associated with dollar-denominated assets, including the hormuz supply shock. a structural preference shift in official reserve composition — not just portfolio trimming — is an anomalous movement in the architecture of global monetary order. 88%
a survey of 90 central banks, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds — collectively managing roughly $10 trillion in assets — found for the first time a majority planning to reduce dollar allocations, citing us political and geopolitical risks. this occurred on the same day ecb president lagarde declared the end of an era in monetary policy, signaling a shift to a more volatile global economic environment requiring different instruments. two of the most significant institutions in global monetary governance sent aligned signals within 24 hours, which is structurally unusual. 87%
multiple analyses this cycle describe a structural reversal in the decades-long transfer of economic authority from elected governments to technocratic central banks. governments facing geopolitical shocks, tariffs, and war-related fiscal demands are operating without the central bank backstop that defined the post-2008 era. iraq's installation of a new central bank governor after a 25-year tenure simultaneously illustrates the reform pressure accumulating in smaller economies exposed directly to these shocks. 86%
the us net international investment position reached minus 71% of gdp at end-2025, roughly four times its 2010 level, making foreign treasury buying structurally necessary to fund the deficit. at the same time the us treasury secretary and japan's prime minister publicly diverged on the bank of japan's rate path, with washington favouring tightening to support the yen and tokyo resisting. open disagreement between the two largest holders of this relationship is unusual; it is normally handled silently. 86%
the 30-year us treasury yield sits at 5.06% and the 30-year inflation-protected yield reached its highest level since the security was reintroduced in 2010, with the curve positioned for a rate hike rather than cuts. real long-term borrowing costs at a 16-year high, landing in the same cycle as a dual oil-chokepoint disruption, marks unusual stress at the long end. 86%

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E160· 30 JUL 2026

a research project by Aamir Hussain terms