the strait of hormuz has operated at roughly 5% of normal traffic since late february, with satellite imagery now showing the us conducting at least 90 million barrels of ship-to-ship oil transfers offshore using methods that mirror iranian sanctions-evasion tactics. shipping industry executives warn that reopening will require safely moving 500 backed-up crude tankers and container ships through a waterway still suspected of containing mines, and that the terms of any us-iran pact remain unclear. this combination — a three-month chokepoint closure, covert workaround logistics at scale, and a chaotic reopening window — represents a structural disruption to global energy transport with no clean resolution path visible.